tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1709 at 12:26, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1709 Southwest LAS 12:26 DSM 17:25 18% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 09:33 → DSM 10:45DL 1704 8h 12m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 14:05 → DSM 15:20DL 2094 7h 20m 94% 83%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:37 → MSP 05:46DL 2834 3h 14m Minneapolis MSP 09:00 → DSM 10:14DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor 7h 37m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:41 → ATL 18:47DL 748 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → DSM 22:29DL 2306 8h 48m 96% 79%
AmericanDetails → LAS 09:47 → DFW 14:38AA 2797 1h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:02 → DSM 18:01AA 3930 · flown by Envoy 6h 14m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → LAS 12:40 → ORD 18:18UA 314 3h 11m Chicago ORD 21:29 → DSM 23:00UA 1839 8h 20m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → LAS 16:25 → DEN 19:30UA 2108 1h 30m Denver DEN 21:00 → DSM 23:47UA 1213 5h 22m 90% 73%
UnitedDetails → LAS 09:37 → DEN 12:41UA 1315 49m Denver DEN 13:30 → DSM 16:15UA 1311 4h 38m 86% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23UA 706 1h 06m Chicago ORD 21:29 → DSM 23:00UA 1839 6h 35m 74% 55%
AmericanDetails → LAS 10:11 → DFW 15:08AA 1584 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:02 → DSM 18:01AA 3930 · flown by Envoy 5h 50m 72% 55%
AmericanDetails → LAS 15:23 → DFW 20:24AA 2376 1h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:05 → DSM 23:58AA 1371 6h 35m 74% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON