Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1887 at 09:56, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1887 Southwest	LAS 09:56	EUG 12:24	11%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LAS 08:19 → PDX 10:39AS 596	3h 51m Portland	PDX 14:30 → EUG 15:18AS 2078 · flown by Horizon	6h 59m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	LAS 10:00 → SLC 12:29DL 1698	2h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:02 → EUG 16:02DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	6h 02m	98%	87%
Alaska Details →	LAS 18:14 → SEA 20:21AS 749	2h 28m Seattle	SEA 22:49 → EUG 23:59AS 2047 · flown by Horizon	5h 45m	95%	84%
Alaska Details →	LAS 11:00 → PDX 13:20AS 1467	1h 14m Portland	PDX 14:34 → EUG 15:29AS 3042 · flown by SkyWest	4h 29m	94%	82%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	2h 43m Denver	DEN 11:15 → EUG 12:57UA 318	7h 27m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:10 → SEA 08:45DL 2844	2h 45m Seattle	SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest	6h 48m	97%	79%
United Details →	LAS 11:06 → SFO 12:48UA 574	3h 47m San Francisco	SFO 16:35 → EUG 18:17UA 502	7h 11m	99%	75%
United Details →	LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323	2h 55m Denver	DEN 19:35 → EUG 21:21UA 1303	7h 45m	97%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LAS 18:08 → PDX 20:27AS 779	57m Portland	PDX 21:24 → EUG 22:23AS 3043 · flown by SkyWest	4h 15m	73%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON