Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1975 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 1975 LAS 07:00 → EWR 15:00 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 1933 LAS 13:52 → EWR 21:58 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1975 United Flight history →	LAS 07:00	EWR 15:00	10%	4%	0.8%	96%
UA 1681 United Flight history →	LAS 22:34	EWR 06:30	12%	5%	0.9%	86%
UA 406 United Flight history →	LAS 00:13	EWR 07:55	14%	3%	0.9%	85%
UA 1386 United Flight history →	LAS 16:10	EWR 00:19	21%	10%	1.0%	86%
UA 1784 United Flight history →	LAS 09:56	EWR 18:00	22%	9%	0.8%	87%
UA 611 United	LAS 14:52	EWR 22:53	26%	12%	0.8%	no record
UA 1731 United Flight history →	LAS 12:35	EWR 20:40	28%	11%	0.8%	74%
UA 1933 United Flight history →	LAS 13:52	EWR 21:58	31%	12%	0.8%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 00:37 → MSP 05:46DL 2834	1h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 07:05 → EWR 10:45DL 2864	7h 08m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	LAS 05:50 → DTW 12:44DL 864	1h 28m Detroit	DTW 14:12 → EWR 15:49DL 2573	6h 59m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857	54m Atlanta	ATL 08:12 → EWR 10:26DL 2397	6h 53m	80%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON