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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 21–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day B6 658 LAS 07:00 → FLL 14:56 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest B6 708 LAS 11:33 → FLL 19:34 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
B6 658 JetBlue Flight history → LAS 07:00 FLL 14:56 21% 8% 2.7% 86%
B6 608 JetBlue Flight history → LAS 22:35 FLL 06:29 28% 16% 2.1% 71%
B6 708 JetBlue LAS 11:33 FLL 19:34 30% 12% 2.2% no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → LAS 09:37 → DEN 12:41UA 1315 1h 12m Denver DEN 13:53 → FLL 19:44UA 1384 7h 07m 94% 74%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11UA 2608 58m Houston IAH 12:09 → FLL 15:51UA 1982 6h 51m 95% 73%
UnitedDetails → LAS 10:25 → IAH 15:40UA 1711 55m Houston IAH 16:35 → FLL 20:22UA 277 6h 57m 86% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON