Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 137 at 08:36 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 137 LAS 08:36 → HNL 12:04 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 805 LAS 18:20 → HNL 21:39 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 137 Southwest	LAS 08:36	HNL 12:04	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2296 Southwest	LAS 10:06	HNL 13:34	18%	4%	0.5%	no record
AS 817 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 01:55	HNL 05:16	21%	4%	0.9%	87%
AS 807 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 10:05	HNL 13:29	30%	7%	0.9%	65%
AS 805 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 18:20	HNL 21:39	34%	14%	2.6%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAS 06:03 → LAX 07:14UA 2039	1h 51m Los Angeles	LAX 09:05 → HNL 11:53UA 1158	8h 50m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:17 → LAX 07:30DL 553	1h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 08:30 → HNL 11:18DL 480	8h 01m	93%	76%
United Details →	LAS 14:15 → LAX 15:35UA 2184	1h 30m Los Angeles	LAX 17:05 → HNL 19:44UA 1170	8h 29m	91%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON