Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2608 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 2608 LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 1966 LAS 14:28 → IAH 19:58 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2608 United Flight history →	LAS 06:00	IAH 11:11	4%	2%	0.6%	95%
UA 3903 United	LAS 06:02	IAH 11:11	5%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1994 United	LAS 07:47	IAH 13:00	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2009 United Flight history →	LAS 00:53	IAH 05:53	11%	4%	0.6%	91%
UA 1711 United Flight history →	LAS 10:25	IAH 15:40	11%	4%	0.6%	91%
UA 1627 United	LAS 12:17	IAH 17:30	18%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 2741 United Flight history →	LAS 15:40	IAH 20:55	19%	10%	0.7%	74%
F9 1966 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 14:28	IAH 19:58	21%	9%	1.0%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON