Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3496 at 12:56, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3496 Southwest	LAS 12:56	ICT 17:31	24%	8%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wichita on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Wichita is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 09:15 → ICT 10:26DL 1637	7h 53m	98%	87%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 23m Denver	DEN 09:55 → ICT 12:27UA 5497 · flown by SkyWest	4h 57m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282	2h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 13:26 → ICT 15:20DL 3807 · flown by SkyWest	7h 01m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 15:16 → ICT 16:34DL 828	8h 34m	97%	80%
United Details →	LAS 09:37 → DEN 12:41UA 1315	1h 18m Denver	DEN 13:59 → ICT 16:34UA 5454 · flown by SkyWest	4h 57m	94%	79%
United Details →	LAS 16:25 → DEN 19:30UA 2108	1h 35m Denver	DEN 21:05 → ICT 23:40UA 4755 · flown by SkyWest	5h 15m	90%	79%
Delta Details →	LAS 10:41 → ATL 17:45DL 777	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → ICT 22:01DL 2959	9h 20m	96%	75%
American Details →	LAS 09:47 → DFW 14:38AA 2797	2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:07 → ICT 18:30AA 3691 · flown by Envoy	6h 43m	100%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LAS 15:23 → DFW 20:24AA 2376	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:16 → ICT 22:48AA 5086 · flown by PSA	5h 25m	51%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON