Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 510 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 510 LAS 07:05 → JFK 15:17 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 248 LAS 15:57 → JFK 23:43 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 510 Delta Flight history →	LAS 07:05	JFK 15:17	10%	3%	0.8%	96%
DL 1159 Delta	LAS 23:34	JFK 07:12	11%	3%	1.2%	no record
B6 2348 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 06:35	JFK 14:35	12%	4%	1.0%	81%
AA 1356 American	LAS 22:56	JFK 07:01	15%	5%	1.1%	no record
DL 333 Delta Flight history →	LAS 09:35	JFK 17:59	22%	5%	0.8%	85%
AA 1890 American	LAS 08:47	JFK 17:01	23%	5%	0.8%	no record
B6 1448 JetBlue	LAS 10:45	JFK 18:28	26%	7%	1.0%	no record
DL 795 Delta Flight history →	LAS 12:16	JFK 20:45	26%	6%	0.9%	78%
AA 3081 American	LAS 12:44	JFK 21:01	29%	8%	0.9%	no record
B6 248 JetBlue	LAS 15:57	JFK 23:43	32%	12%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON