tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via LAX, leaving 06:03, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 19% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 267 Southwest LAS 09:26 KOA 12:44 13% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:03 → LAX 07:14UA 2039 1h 46m Los Angeles LAX 09:00 → KOA 11:42UA 2373 8h 39m 99% 89%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 01:55 → HNL 05:16AS 817 2h 43m Honolulu HNL 07:59 → KOA 08:57AS 1048 10h 02m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 3h 43m Denver DEN 12:15 → KOA 15:37UA 1758 13h 07m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:08 → LAX 14:24DL 1696 2h 20m Los Angeles LAX 16:44 → KOA 19:17DL 311 9h 09m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:34 → SFO 15:16UA 1799 3h 31m San Francisco SFO 18:47 → KOA 21:19UA 1723 10h 45m 98% 81%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 07:05 → OGG 10:12AS 931 3h 51m Kahului OGG 14:03 → KOA 14:39AS 1140 10h 34m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → LAS 06:45 → PHX 08:00AA 1808 2h 40m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → KOA 14:06AA 663 10h 21m 96% 75%
AmericanDetails → LAS 10:04 → LAX 11:24AA 6425 · flown by SkyWest 2h 06m Los Angeles LAX 13:30 → KOA 16:10AA 59 9h 06m 97% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAS 14:25 → SEA 16:54AS 629 55m Seattle SEA 17:49 → KOA 20:44AS 238 9h 19m 45% 32%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 06:59 → SEA 09:29AS 701 47m Seattle SEA 10:16 → KOA 13:14AS 709 9h 15m 19% 13%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON