Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2039 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 2039 LAS 06:02 → LAX 07:12 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 2477 LAS 19:03 → LAX 20:17 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2039 United Flight history →	LAS 06:02	LAX 07:12	5%	2%	0.6%	97%
F9 3291 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 06:21	LAX 07:46	7%	3%	0.8%	82%
WN 2052 Southwest	LAS 07:36	LAX 08:57	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 553 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:52	LAX 08:00	11%	2%	0.6%	94%
UA 2316 United Flight history →	LAS 10:41	LAX 12:08	14%	6%	0.6%	90%
WN 2313 Southwest	LAS 09:11	LAX 10:32	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2253 Delta Flight history →	LAS 09:57	LAX 11:14	15%	4%	0.6%	92%
AA 6425 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 10:04	LAX 11:24	16%	6%	0.7%	93%
AA 2690 American Flight history →	LAS 07:18	LAX 08:38	17%	4%	0.7%	85%
UA 2808 United	LAS 08:21	LAX 09:35	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2312 Southwest	LAS 12:06	LAX 13:27	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 2263 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 13:43	LAX 15:05	20%	6%	0.9%	89%
UA 2184 United Flight history →	LAS 14:15	LAX 15:35	21%	9%	0.6%	83%
DL 1696 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:08	LAX 14:24	21%	6%	0.7%	75%
UA 1803 United	LAS 16:23	LAX 17:44	22%	11%	0.7%	no record
DL 1703 Delta	LAS 17:40	LAX 19:01	24%	11%	0.7%	no record
WN 2315 Southwest	LAS 14:31	LAX 15:52	25%	7%	0.7%	no record
F9 2333 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 18:51	LAX 20:16	26%	10%	3.3%	64%
OO 6511 SkyWest	LAS 17:37	LAX 19:01	26%	13%	1.1%	no record
WN 3949 Southwest	LAS 16:21	LAX 17:42	27%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 1180 American	LAS 14:29	LAX 15:48	28%	11%	0.8%	no record
WN 2316 Southwest	LAS 19:34	LAX 20:46	38%	11%	1.7%	no record
AA 2477 American	LAS 19:03	LAX 20:17	38%	13%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON