Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4375 at 07:41 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 4375 LAS 07:41 → LGB 09:01 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1581 LAS 19:29 → LGB 20:41 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4375 Southwest	LAS 07:41	LGB 09:01	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1166 Southwest	LAS 12:01	LGB 13:21	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 4791 Southwest	LAS 14:51	LGB 16:11	22%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 1317 Southwest	LAS 16:36	LGB 17:56	24%	10%	0.9%	no record
WN 1581 Southwest	LAS 19:29	LGB 20:41	28%	12%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON