Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via LAX, leaving 06:03, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Lihue on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4463 Southwest	LAS 09:16	LIH 12:43	15%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LAS 01:55 → HNL 05:16AS 817	3h 55m Honolulu	HNL 09:11 → LIH 10:01AS 1043	11h 06m	100%	86%
United Details →	LAS 06:03 → LAX 07:14UA 2039	1h 35m Los Angeles	LAX 08:49 → LIH 11:46UA 1295	8h 43m	98%	84%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	3h 28m Denver	DEN 12:00 → LIH 15:37UA 2307	13h 07m	100%	81%
United Details →	LAS 11:30 → SFO 13:22UA 574	3h 33m San Francisco	SFO 16:55 → LIH 19:42UA 1684	11h 12m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	LAS 09:58 → LAX 11:15DL 2253	3h 30m Los Angeles	LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428	10h 43m	98%	80%
Alaska Details →	LAS 07:05 → OGG 10:12AS 931	2h 04m Kahului	OGG 12:16 → LIH 13:06AS 1049	9h 01m	96%	71%
Alaska Details →	LAS 10:05 → HNL 13:29AS 807	3h 03m Honolulu	HNL 16:32 → LIH 17:22AS 1133	10h 17m	97%	70%
Alaska Details →	LAS 12:09 → SEA 14:39AS 785	3h 34m Seattle	SEA 18:13 → LIH 21:25AS 237	12h 16m	98%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON