Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1389 at 09:56, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1389 Southwest	LAS 09:56	LIT 15:11	13%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Little Rock is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 09:48 → LIT 10:28DL 3040	7h 55m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 16:32 → LIT 17:12DL 3025	9h 12m	97%	82%
United Details →	LAS 00:53 → IAH 05:53UA 2009	3h 58m Houston	IAH 09:51 → LIT 11:25UA 4371 · flown by CommuteAir	8h 32m	100%	80%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 03m Denver	DEN 09:35 → LIT 12:54UA 5369 · flown by SkyWest	5h 24m	96%	80%
American Details →	LAS 09:47 → DFW 14:38AA 2797	1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:49 → LIT 17:10AA 4309 · flown by Envoy	5h 23m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	LAS 11:41 → ATL 18:47DL 748	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → LIT 23:14DL 2083	9h 33m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	LAS 08:26 → ATL 15:25DL 927	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 19:09 → LIT 19:44DL 2701	9h 18m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 15:14 → LIT 15:49DL 3027	6h 44m	88%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LAS 14:38 → ATL 21:49DL 591	51m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → LIT 23:14DL 2083	6h 36m	65%	50%
United Details →	LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23UA 706	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 21:24 → LIT 23:14UA 4542 · flown by GoJet	6h 49m	66%	46%
American Details →	LAS 15:23 → DFW 20:24AA 2376	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:11 → LIT 22:35AA 4079 · flown by Envoy	5h 12m	44%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON