tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4331 at 10:46, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4331 Southwest LAS 10:46 MAF 15:01 12% 2% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Midland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Midland is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:53 → IAH 05:53UA 2009 1h 27m Houston IAH 07:20 → MAF 08:52UA 6263 · flown by Mesa 5h 59m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 33m Denver DEN 10:05 → MAF 12:59UA 5333 · flown by SkyWest 5h 29m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → LAS 07:13 → DFW 12:06AA 617 3h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:39 → MAF 16:58AA 3653 · flown by Envoy 7h 45m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → LAS 12:25 → DFW 17:20AA 1482 2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:12 → MAF 21:30AA 4172 · flown by Envoy 7h 05m 97% 70%
AmericanDetails → LAS 10:11 → DFW 15:08AA 1584 3h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:37 → MAF 19:52AA 4279 · flown by Envoy 7h 41m 96% 68%
UnitedDetails → LAS 15:40 → IAH 20:55UA 2741 54m Houston IAH 21:49 → MAF 23:51UA 1592 6h 11m 77% 65%
AmericanDetails → LAS 14:02 → DFW 19:03AA 777 1h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:35 → MAF 21:53AA 3541 · flown by Envoy 5h 51m 82% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAS 14:02 → DFW 19:03AA 777 1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:12 → MAF 21:30AA 4172 · flown by Envoy 5h 28m 72% 51%
AmericanDetails → LAS 16:48 → PHX 18:11AA 1541 49m Phoenix PHX 19:00 → MAF 22:48AA 4892 · flown by SkyWest 4h 00m 63% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON