Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2331 at 06:08 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 2331 LAS 06:08 → MCO 13:36 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2832 LAS 14:25 → MCO 22:06 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2331 Southwest	LAS 06:08	MCO 13:36	7%	1%	4.5%	no record
WN 2332 Southwest	LAS 08:51	MCO 16:21	15%	4%	1.3%	no record
WN 2334 Southwest	LAS 22:44	MCO 06:12	20%	5%	1.1%	no record
WN 2333 Southwest	LAS 12:16	MCO 19:46	23%	6%	1.4%	no record
F9 1876 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 21:42	MCO 05:30	23%	8%	2.4%	71%
B6 2832 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 14:25	MCO 22:06	32%	8%	1.7%	86%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → MCO 09:58DL 1213	6h 25m	89%	73%
Delta Details →	LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677	55m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → MCO 16:40DL 1150	6h 35m	83%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON