tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1627 at 10:11, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1627 Southwest LAS 10:11 MEM 15:30 18% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 2h 22m Denver DEN 10:54 → MEM 14:18UA 2789 6h 48m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:42 → MSP 16:45DL 2262 3h 20m Minneapolis MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest 8h 33m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937 7h 59m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → LAS 10:00 → SLC 12:29DL 1698 1h 11m Salt Lake City SLC 13:40 → MEM 17:40DL 2515 5h 40m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 14:50 → MEM 15:09DL 1700 7h 09m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:11 → ORD 05:44AA 3077 2h 37m Chicago ORD 08:21 → MEM 10:10AA 3959 · flown by Envoy 7h 59m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 16:33 → MEM 16:56DL 1681 7h 51m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → LAS 06:08 → DFW 11:00AA 2932 1h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:47 → MEM 14:26AA 3888 · flown by Envoy 6h 18m 97% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323 50m Denver DEN 17:30 → MEM 20:56UA 2130 5h 20m 71% 54%
UnitedDetails → LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23UA 706 57m Chicago ORD 21:20 → MEM 23:21UA 2317 6h 56m 62% 45%
AmericanDetails → LAS 15:23 → DFW 20:24AA 2376 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:25 → MEM 23:07AA 1758 5h 44m 63% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON