Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3318 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 3318 LAS 05:58 → MIA 14:00 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 1173 LAS 13:10 → MIA 21:17 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3318 American Flight history →	LAS 05:58	MIA 14:00	18%	3%	1.1%	81%
AA 1539 American	LAS 22:03	MIA 06:03	22%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 803 American	LAS 11:41	MIA 19:42	36%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 1173 American	LAS 13:10	MIA 21:17	39%	8%	1.0%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 09:03 → MIA 11:03DL 1510	7h 30m	98%	78%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 20m Denver	DEN 09:52 → MIA 16:00UA 1418	7h 30m	99%	75%
United Details →	LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11UA 2608	49m Houston	IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410	6h 47m	90%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON