tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2340 at 07:46 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2340 Southwest LAS 07:46 MKE 13:20 8% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 4795 Southwest LAS 18:39 MKE 00:02 28% 10% 2.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Milwaukee is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:37 → MSP 05:46DL 2834 3h 06m Minneapolis MSP 08:52 → MKE 10:11DL 1781 7h 34m 99% 93%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:53 → IAH 05:53UA 2009 1h 27m Houston IAH 07:20 → MKE 10:05UA 6149 · flown by Mesa 7h 12m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 10:49 → MKE 11:51DL 1151 9h 18m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282 2h 21m Minneapolis MSP 13:43 → MKE 15:02DL 2006 6h 43m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 25m Denver DEN 09:57 → MKE 13:25UA 1836 5h 55m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 15:55 → MKE 16:59DL 1206 8h 59m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:41 → ATL 18:47DL 748 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 22:39 → MKE 23:43DL 1268 10h 02m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAS 07:00 → EWR 15:00UA 1975 1h 27m Newark EWR 16:27 → MKE 18:05UA 3562 · flown by Republic 9h 05m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAS 14:38 → ATL 21:49DL 591 50m Atlanta ATL 22:39 → MKE 23:43DL 1268 7h 05m 66% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON