Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1282 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 1282 LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 4746 LAS 13:56 → MSP 19:09 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1282 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:19	MSP 11:22	5%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 2834 Delta Flight history →	LAS 00:37	MSP 05:46	8%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2261 Delta Flight history →	LAS 09:36	MSP 14:42	10%	3%	0.6%	97%
DL 2262 Delta Flight history →	LAS 11:42	MSP 16:45	13%	4%	0.6%	91%
DL 2238 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:31	MSP 18:42	16%	5%	0.6%	79%
F9 4746 Frontier	LAS 13:56	MSP 19:09	19%	9%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON