Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via LAX, leaving 06:03, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 10% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2354 Southwest	LAS 09:21	OGG 12:49	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 931 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 07:05	OGG 10:12	18%	5%	1.1%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LAS 01:55 → HNL 05:16AS 817	2h 46m Honolulu	HNL 08:02 → OGG 08:43AS 1046	9h 48m	98%	85%
United Details →	LAS 06:03 → LAX 07:14UA 2039	1h 54m Los Angeles	LAX 09:08 → OGG 11:54UA 417	8h 51m	99%	82%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	3h 28m Denver	DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736	12h 35m	100%	81%
United Details →	LAS 11:30 → SFO 13:22UA 574	3h 18m San Francisco	SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749	10h 47m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:17 → LAX 07:30DL 553	1h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:07DL 425	7h 50m	93%	77%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674	3h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623	11h 08m	99%	76%
American Details →	LAS 06:45 → PHX 08:00AA 1808	3h 03m Phoenix	PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645	10h 47m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	LAS 11:09 → SEA 14:00DL 2922	59m Seattle	SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56DL 344	9h 47m	87%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LAS 06:59 → SEA 09:29AS 701	46m Seattle	SEA 10:15 → OGG 13:19AS 929	9h 20m	10%	7%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON