tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2968 at 07:41 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2968 Southwest LAS 07:41 OKC 12:21 6% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1406 Southwest LAS 17:46 OKC 22:21 34% 11% 1.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:53 → IAH 05:53UA 2009 1h 32m Houston IAH 07:25 → OKC 08:57UA 6178 · flown by Mesa 6h 04m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 09:53 → OKC 11:08DL 2490 8h 35m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 33m Denver DEN 10:05 → OKC 13:01UA 5324 · flown by SkyWest 5h 31m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:15 → SLC 15:44DL 1659 2h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 17:45 → OKC 21:07DL 3703 · flown by SkyWest 5h 52m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:36 → MSP 14:42DL 2261 3h 28m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → OKC 20:15DL 3791 · flown by SkyWest 8h 39m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:37 → MSP 05:46DL 2834 3h 19m Minneapolis MSP 09:05 → OKC 11:16DL 5142 · flown by Endeavor 8h 39m 100% 74%
FrontierDetails → LAS 09:35 → DEN 12:43F9 1766 3h 11m Denver DEN 15:54 → OKC 18:31F9 1928 6h 56m 95% 72%
DeltaDetails → LAS 08:26 → ATL 15:25DL 927 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 18:05 → OKC 19:16DL 2784 8h 50m 98% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAS 14:38 → ATL 21:49DL 591 55m Atlanta ATL 22:44 → OKC 23:52DL 2423 7h 14m 71% 53%
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323 48m Denver DEN 17:28 → OKC 20:08UA 1184 4h 32m 71% 51%
AmericanDetails → LAS 15:23 → DFW 20:24AA 2376 1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:29 → OKC 22:33AA 1458 5h 10m 65% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON