Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2358 at 07:41 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2358 Southwest	LAS 07:41	OMA 12:26	7%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 4499 Southwest	LAS 17:41	OMA 22:36	31%	11%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674	1h 06m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:25 → OMA 12:46DL 4114 · flown by SkyWest	4h 46m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 09:25 → OMA 10:43DL 1125	8h 10m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	LAS 13:31 → MSP 18:42DL 2238	2h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 21:30 → OMA 22:48DL 4014 · flown by SkyWest	7h 17m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	LAS 09:36 → MSP 14:42DL 2261	3h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 18:05 → OMA 19:25DL 4024 · flown by SkyWest	7h 49m	100%	88%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 35m Denver	DEN 10:07 → OMA 12:47UA 1633	5h 17m	99%	88%
American Details →	LAS 00:11 → ORD 05:44AA 3077	2h 34m Chicago	ORD 08:18 → OMA 10:01AA 4042 · flown by Envoy	7h 50m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	LAS 09:59 → DTW 16:55DL 470	2h 50m Detroit	DTW 19:45 → OMA 20:53DL 3715 · flown by SkyWest	8h 54m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	LAS 13:15 → SLC 15:44DL 1659	1h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:18 → OMA 20:40DL 3706 · flown by SkyWest	5h 25m	95%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23UA 706	48m Chicago	ORD 21:11 → OMA 22:42UA 2336	6h 17m	45%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON