Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2361 at 07:41 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 2361 LAS 07:41 → ONT 08:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1939 LAS 19:24 → ONT 20:33 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2361 Southwest	LAS 07:41	ONT 08:55	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4570 Southwest	LAS 00:09	ONT 01:18	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
F9 1283 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 07:00	ONT 08:03	15%	5%	0.9%	86%
WN 726 Southwest	LAS 14:56	ONT 16:10	19%	7%	0.7%	no record
F9 1923 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 15:19	ONT 16:26	24%	11%	1.4%	79%
WN 1939 Southwest	LAS 19:24	ONT 20:33	30%	12%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON