Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1057 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 1057 LAS 06:02 → ORD 11:41 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2366 LAS 15:48 → ORD 21:54 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1057 United	LAS 06:02	ORD 11:41	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 664 United Flight history →	LAS 07:00	ORD 12:48	12%	5%	0.6%	89%
UA 2102 United Flight history →	LAS 23:30	ORD 05:11	15%	5%	0.6%	92%
AA 3077 American Flight history →	LAS 00:11	ORD 05:26	19%	4%	1.0%	85%
UA 1672 United Flight history →	LAS 08:59	ORD 14:29	19%	6%	0.6%	80%
AA 2258 American Flight history →	LAS 07:20	ORD 13:16	21%	4%	0.9%	89%
UA 1583 United Flight history →	LAS 10:25	ORD 16:21	22%	7%	0.6%	83%
UA 2320 United Flight history →	LAS 16:15	ORD 22:13	26%	9%	0.7%	78%
AA 3080 American	LAS 09:50	ORD 15:39	27%	6%	1.0%	no record
F9 2146 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 00:13	ORD 05:50	27%	7%	1.8%	70%
UA 314 United Flight history →	LAS 12:40	ORD 18:18	30%	9%	0.6%	69%
AA 1497 American	LAS 12:59	ORD 19:10	31%	8%	1.1%	no record
UA 706 United Flight history →	LAS 14:25	ORD 20:23	33%	10%	0.6%	67%
AA 2366 American	LAS 15:48	ORD 21:54	33%	9%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON