Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 690 at 08:06 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 690 LAS 08:06 → PDX 10:36 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2369 LAS 19:44 → PDX 22:06 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 690 Southwest	LAS 08:06	PDX 10:36	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1502 Alaska	LAS 07:00	PDX 09:20	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
AS 596 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 08:19	PDX 10:39	12%	3%	0.8%	91%
F9 1103 Frontier	LAS 09:26	PDX 12:03	14%	6%	1.7%	no record
AS 1467 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 11:00	PDX 13:20	15%	3%	0.8%	90%
AS 756 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 14:08	PDX 16:29	20%	6%	0.8%	80%
WN 580 Southwest	LAS 14:31	PDX 17:01	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 779 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 18:08	PDX 20:27	24%	9%	2.9%	82%
WN 2369 Southwest	LAS 19:44	PDX 22:06	27%	9%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON