Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 534 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 534 LAS 06:45 → PHL 14:46 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1881 LAS 11:13 → PHL 19:23 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 534 American	LAS 06:45	PHL 14:46	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 779 American Flight history →	LAS 08:46	PHL 16:44	19%	5%	0.7%	81%
AA 1881 American	LAS 11:13	PHL 19:23	25%	7%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 03m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:08UA 1575	6h 38m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	LAS 13:31 → MSP 18:42DL 2238	1h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → PHL 23:21DL 2703	6h 50m	88%	78%
United Details →	LAS 09:37 → DEN 12:41UA 1315	1h 12m Denver	DEN 13:53 → PHL 19:36UA 2787	6h 59m	94%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON