Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2370 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 2370 LAS 06:21 → PHX 07:43 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2368 LAS 17:36 → PHX 18:58 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2370 Southwest	LAS 06:21	PHX 07:43	3%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 478 Southwest	LAS 07:46	PHX 09:13	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1049 Southwest	LAS 09:56	PHX 11:18	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 1808 American Flight history →	LAS 06:45	PHX 08:00	10%	3%	0.9%	91%
F9 4048 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 10:04	PHX 11:27	13%	5%	1.0%	88%
WN 2845 Southwest	LAS 12:01	PHX 13:23	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1956 American	LAS 09:23	PHX 10:45	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2109 American Flight history →	LAS 12:12	PHX 13:31	20%	8%	0.8%	79%
F9 1896 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 21:48	PHX 23:05	21%	9%	1.5%	75%
F9 9432 Frontier	LAS 21:26	PHX 22:52	21%	10%	1.5%	no record
WN 1005 Southwest	LAS 15:46	PHX 17:08	21%	7%	1.0%	no record
WN 2373 Southwest	LAS 14:36	PHX 15:58	24%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 2446 American	LAS 13:20	PHX 14:43	26%	10%	1.0%	no record
WN 2374 Southwest	LAS 18:44	PHX 19:58	26%	10%	2.4%	no record
AA 1541 American Flight history →	LAS 16:48	PHX 18:11	29%	13%	1.4%	76%
WN 2368 Southwest	LAS 17:36	PHX 18:58	30%	10%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON