tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 13:36, is the safest bet: 60% chance of reaching Pittsburgh on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 44% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1289 Southwest LAS 08:36 PIT 15:50 8% 2% 0.5% no record
WN 4304 Southwest LAS 17:06 PIT 00:20 26% 10% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:37 → MSP 05:46DL 2834 1h 59m Minneapolis MSP 07:45 → PIT 10:48DL 845 7h 11m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345 9h 19m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:11 → ORD 05:44AA 3077 2h 38m Chicago ORD 08:22 → PIT 11:11AA 4478 · flown by Republic 8h 00m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:42 → MSP 16:45DL 2262 3h 05m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → PIT 22:55DL 1134 8h 13m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674 2h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 10:50 → PIT 16:38DL 1188 7h 38m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:02 → LAX 07:12UA 2039 1h 48m Los Angeles LAX 09:00 → PIT 16:51UA 2039 7h 49m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 33m Denver DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16UA 1308 6h 46m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAS 12:40 → ORD 18:18UA 314 3h 02m Chicago ORD 21:20 → PIT 23:59UA 3464 · flown by Republic 8h 19m 99% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAS 14:38 → ATL 21:49DL 591 50m Atlanta ATL 22:39 → PIT 00:22 +1DL 1351 6h 44m 66% 56%
UnitedDetails → LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23UA 706 57m Chicago ORD 21:20 → PIT 23:59UA 3464 · flown by Republic 6h 34m 64% 55%
AmericanDetails → LAS 11:09 → CLT 18:36AA 2981 52m Charlotte CLT 19:28 → PIT 20:54AA 2676 6h 45m 44% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON