tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 28–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1953 Southwest LAS 14:01 PSP 15:10 28% 9% 0.8% no record
WN 4040 Southwest LAS 19:29 PSP 20:34 35% 13% 1.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Palm Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674 2h 26m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PSP 11:41DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest 5h 41m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → LAS 10:00 → SLC 12:29DL 1698 3h 16m Salt Lake City SLC 15:45 → PSP 16:38DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest 6h 38m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 2h 46m Denver DEN 11:18 → PSP 12:38UA 687 7h 08m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAS 07:15 → SFO 08:52UA 2356 3h 51m San Francisco SFO 12:43 → PSP 14:26UA 342 7h 11m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → LAS 14:15 → LAX 15:35UA 2184 3h 15m Los Angeles LAX 18:50 → PSP 19:53UA 5345 · flown by SkyWest 5h 38m 97% 78%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 16:45 → SFO 18:16AS 634 2h 03m San Francisco SFO 20:19 → PSP 21:57AS 3356 · flown by SkyWest 5h 12m 95% 75%
AmericanDetails → LAS 12:12 → PHX 13:31AA 2109 3h 45m Phoenix PHX 17:16 → PSP 18:33AA 4922 · flown by SkyWest 6h 21m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → LAS 06:45 → PHX 08:00AA 1808 2h 36m Phoenix PHX 10:36 → PSP 11:58AA 1884 5h 13m 97% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON