Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 822 Delta Flight history →	LAS 00:14	RDU 07:22	10%	3%	0.7%	90%
WN 1356 Southwest	LAS 08:56	RDU 16:26	14%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → RDU 11:38DL 2052	8h 05m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282	3h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 14:36 → RDU 18:12DL 2699	8h 53m	98%	87%
American Details →	LAS 00:11 → ORD 05:44AA 3077	2h 36m Chicago	ORD 08:20 → RDU 11:38AA 4354 · flown by Republic	8h 27m	97%	86%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 17m Denver	DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269	6h 46m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	LAS 11:27 → DTW 18:26DL 334	3h 14m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → RDU 23:25DL 2839	8h 58m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	LAS 05:50 → DTW 12:44DL 864	1h 41m Detroit	DTW 14:25 → RDU 16:08DL 1407	7h 18m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	LAS 11:42 → MSP 16:45DL 2262	3h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 20:25 → RDU 23:59DL 2932	9h 17m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 14:28 → RDU 15:57DL 1550	6h 57m	95%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LAS 11:33 → DFW 16:28AA 1494	1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:30 → RDU 21:21AA 979	6h 48m	73%	42%
American Details →	LAS 14:02 → DFW 19:03AA 777	1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:04 → RDU 23:48AA 542	6h 46m	64%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON