Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4157 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 4157 LAS 06:21 → RNO 07:55 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 989 LAS 19:44 → RNO 21:09 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4157 Southwest	LAS 06:21	RNO 07:55	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 635 Southwest	LAS 07:36	RNO 09:05	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2391 Southwest	LAS 00:56	RNO 02:31	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2383 Southwest	LAS 09:36	RNO 11:10	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4988 Southwest	LAS 13:11	RNO 14:45	16%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 2386 Southwest	LAS 15:46	RNO 17:20	19%	6%	1.0%	no record
F9 4241 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 16:43	RNO 18:14	22%	8%	1.7%	71%
WN 4610 Southwest	LAS 17:36	RNO 19:10	22%	8%	0.9%	no record
WN 989 Southwest	LAS 19:44	RNO 21:09	27%	9%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON