Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2785 at 07:26 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 2785 LAS 07:26 → SAN 08:55 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4420 LAS 19:39 → SAN 20:54 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2785 Southwest	LAS 07:26	SAN 08:55	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1401 Southwest	LAS 11:46	SAN 13:15	24%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 668 Southwest	LAS 12:51	SAN 14:20	26%	8%	0.8%	no record
WN 155 Southwest	LAS 14:51	SAN 16:25	27%	10%	0.9%	no record
DL 3741 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 12:57	SAN 14:13	29%	10%	1.0%	79%
F9 1325 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 16:01	SAN 17:31	31%	12%	1.2%	73%
WN 1307 Southwest	LAS 17:41	SAN 19:15	36%	14%	1.3%	no record
WN 4420 Southwest	LAS 19:39	SAN 20:54	42%	14%	2.0%	no record
AS 2252 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 06:50	SAN 08:04	24%	4%	3.8%	76%
AS 2416 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 11:11	SAN 12:29	35%	4%	4.7%	65%
AS 2253 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 07:59	SAN 09:15	56%	8%	2.0%	44%
AS 2251 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 18:19	SAN 19:36	76%	33%	9.8%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON