Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4050 at 07:36 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 4050 LAS 07:36 → SAT 12:20 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4540 LAS 17:46 → SAT 22:30 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4050 Southwest	LAS 07:36	SAT 12:20	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 3418 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 08:06	SAT 13:03	16%	5%	0.7%	84%
F9 3420 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 09:41	SAT 14:46	16%	5%	0.7%	74%
WN 4607 Southwest	LAS 12:46	SAT 17:30	17%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 4540 Southwest	LAS 17:46	SAT 22:30	28%	11%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON