tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4297 at 11:51 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4297 Southwest LAS 11:51 SBA 13:20 13% 4% 1.1% no record
WN 1708 Southwest LAS 19:29 SBA 20:52 27% 10% 2.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674 2h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 5h 59m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAS 10:00 → SLC 12:29DL 1698 2h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → SBA 16:03DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 6h 03m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAS 17:15 → SLC 19:42DL 1672 1h 23m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → SBA 22:05DL 3803 · flown by SkyWest 4h 50m 89% 82%
AmericanDetails → LAS 06:45 → PHX 08:00AA 1808 2h 03m Phoenix PHX 10:03 → SBA 11:56AA 2928 5h 11m 95% 80%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 14:08 → PDX 16:29AS 756 1h 19m Portland PDX 17:48 → SBA 20:04AS 2029 · flown by Horizon 5h 56m 89% 79%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 2h 54m Denver DEN 11:26 → SBA 13:02UA 671 7h 32m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → LAS 12:12 → PHX 13:31AA 2109 3h 46m Phoenix PHX 17:17 → SBA 19:08AA 1855 6h 56m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → LAS 07:15 → SFO 08:52UA 2356 1h 37m San Francisco SFO 10:29 → SBA 11:52UA 1578 4h 37m 95% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:34 → SFO 15:16UA 1799 1h 01m San Francisco SFO 16:17 → SBA 17:37UA 639 4h 03m 68% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON