Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1344 at 07:31, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1344 Southwest	LAS 07:31	SDF 14:15	9%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → SDF 12:31DL 1481	8h 58m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	LAS 09:59 → DTW 16:55DL 470	2h 50m Detroit	DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic	8h 13m	99%	88%
American Details →	LAS 08:46 → PHL 16:44AA 779	4h 00m Philadelphia	PHL 20:44 → SDF 23:03AA 4335 · flown by Republic	11h 17m	99%	88%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 13m Denver	DEN 09:45 → SDF 14:28UA 1479	5h 58m	98%	87%
United Details →	LAS 00:53 → IAH 05:53UA 2009	2h 37m Houston	IAH 08:30 → SDF 11:54UA 3990 · flown by Mesa	8h 01m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 12:42 → SDF 15:39DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest	6h 20m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → SDF 19:13DL 2831	9h 08m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → SDF 17:15DL 1126	8h 15m	97%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23UA 706	1h 02m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → SDF 23:59UA 3659 · flown by Republic	6h 34m	70%	56%
American Details →	LAS 12:25 → DFW 17:20AA 1482	59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:19 → SDF 21:38AA 2212	6h 13m	69%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON