Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2844 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–49%.

Safest bet that day DL 2844 LAS 06:10 → SEA 08:45 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 1677 LAS 19:29 → SEA 21:32 · 49% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2844 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:10	SEA 08:45	7%	2%	0.7%	96%
AS 701 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 06:02	SEA 08:45	9%	2%	0.9%	96%
DL 2922 Delta Flight history →	LAS 11:09	SEA 14:00	11%	4%	0.7%	92%
WN 2409 Southwest	LAS 00:19	SEA 03:04	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 741 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 06:00	SEA 08:32	14%	3%	0.9%	87%
DL 2905 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:31	SEA 16:16	19%	6%	0.7%	89%
F9 2407 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 07:45	SEA 10:39	20%	5%	1.1%	80%
WN 1322 Southwest	LAS 09:16	SEA 12:01	21%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 785 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 11:30	SEA 14:14	21%	5%	0.8%	85%
WN 2408 Southwest	LAS 12:56	SEA 15:41	27%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 676 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 09:41	SEA 12:12	29%	5%	0.8%	77%
AS 691 Alaska	LAS 20:57	SEA 23:27	32%	11%	1.4%	no record
AS 629 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 14:25	SEA 16:55	33%	8%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
DL 2956 Delta Flight history →	LAS 19:06	SEA 21:49	34%	10%	1.0%	72%
AS 738 Alaska	LAS 15:54	SEA 18:25	35%	11%	0.9%	no record
WN 1572 Southwest	LAS 19:34	SEA 22:08	45%	17%	1.4%	no record
AS 749 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 18:14	SEA 20:21	48%	12%	2.0%	81%worse than usual
AS 1677 Alaska	LAS 19:29	SEA 21:32	49%	14%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON