Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: F9 3019 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–39%.

Safest bet that day F9 3019 LAS 07:00 → SFO 08:48 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest WN 4982 LAS 19:39 → SFO 21:16 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 3019 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 07:00	SFO 08:48	18%	7%	1.1%	76%
UA 2356 United Flight history →	LAS 07:15	SFO 08:52	21%	6%	0.6%	63%
UA 574 United Flight history →	LAS 11:06	SFO 12:48	23%	10%	0.6%	69%
AS 613 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 20:47	SFO 22:20	27%	13%	1.7%	76%
F9 4401 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 12:34	SFO 14:21	27%	12%	1.1%	52%
AS 565 Alaska	LAS 12:15	SFO 13:49	28%	10%	0.7%	no record
UA 2047 United Flight history →	LAS 15:19	SFO 17:11	28%	14%	0.6%	71%
UA 3771 United	LAS 15:52	SFO 17:43	29%	14%	0.6%	no record
UA 1125 United	LAS 09:26	SFO 11:18	29%	8%	0.6%	no record
DL 8963 Delta	LAS 13:54	SFO 15:30	29%	11%	1.2%	no record
UA 1603 United Flight history →	LAS 18:20	SFO 20:02	30%	16%	1.7%	66%
WN 3777 Southwest	LAS 09:26	SFO 11:05	31%	11%	0.6%	no record
F9 4157 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 16:31	SFO 18:21	31%	14%	1.4%	69%
WN 1743 Southwest	LAS 13:26	SFO 15:15	33%	11%	0.7%	no record
AS 634 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 16:45	SFO 18:16	33%	13%	0.9%	58%
UA 1160 United	LAS 17:09	SFO 18:44	33%	16%	0.7%	no record
UA 1799 United Flight history →	LAS 13:34	SFO 15:16	33%	13%	0.6%	57%
UA 1267 United Flight history →	LAS 19:57	SFO 21:39	34%	15%	1.2%	40%
WN 4982 Southwest	LAS 19:39	SFO 21:16	39%	16%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON