Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Springfield on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Springfield on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Springfield is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → SGF 10:52DL 4707 · flown by Endeavor	8h 19m	100%	84%
American Details →	LAS 06:08 → DFW 11:00AA 2932	3h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:17 → SGF 15:46AA 3556 · flown by Envoy	7h 38m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → SGF 15:20DL 854	7h 20m	95%	82%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 22m Denver	DEN 09:54 → SGF 12:52UA 5481 · flown by SkyWest	5h 22m	99%	82%
American Details →	LAS 09:47 → DFW 14:38AA 2797	2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:57 → SGF 18:27AA 4311 · flown by Envoy	6h 40m	100%	80%
United Details →	LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11UA 2608	3h 19m Houston	IAH 14:30 → SGF 16:20UA 4911 · flown by CommuteAir	8h 20m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	LAS 10:41 → ATL 17:45DL 777	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 20:18 → SGF 21:12DL 1105	8h 31m	96%	77%
American Details →	LAS 12:25 → DFW 17:20AA 1482	3h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:23 → SGF 21:54AA 4092 · flown by Envoy	7h 29m	97%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23UA 706	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → SGF 23:27UA 4451 · flown by GoJet	7h 02m	75%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON