Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2413 at 05:38 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 2413 LAS 05:38 → SJC 07:03 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2417 LAS 19:36 → SJC 21:12 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2413 Southwest	LAS 05:38	SJC 07:03	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2273 Southwest	LAS 09:16	SJC 10:56	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2419 Southwest	LAS 00:06	SJC 01:35	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1634 Southwest	LAS 11:06	SJC 12:46	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 5014 Southwest	LAS 14:51	SJC 16:31	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 2415 Southwest	LAS 13:16	SJC 14:56	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 2008 Southwest	LAS 16:11	SJC 17:51	17%	5%	1.1%	no record
WN 2416 Southwest	LAS 17:36	SJC 19:16	21%	7%	1.1%	no record
WN 2417 Southwest	LAS 19:36	SJC 21:12	22%	8%	2.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON