Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2674 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 2674 LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 2424 LAS 18:49 → SLC 21:12 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2674 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:00	SLC 08:19	5%	2%	0.4%	96%
WN 1121 Southwest	LAS 07:31	SLC 09:59	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 3016 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 10:18	SLC 12:51	10%	5%	0.9%	93%
DL 1698 Delta Flight history →	LAS 10:00	SLC 12:29	11%	3%	0.4%	89%
DL 1659 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:15	SLC 15:44	14%	7%	0.5%	84%
DL 1672 Delta Flight history →	LAS 17:15	SLC 19:42	22%	10%	0.5%	77%
WN 4202 Southwest	LAS 14:35	SLC 16:58	23%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 2424 Southwest	LAS 18:49	SLC 21:12	29%	11%	2.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON