Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 843 at 08:16 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 843 LAS 08:16 → SMF 10:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2232 LAS 19:35 → SMF 21:11 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 843 Southwest	LAS 08:16	SMF 10:00	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 5015 Southwest	LAS 09:21	SMF 11:05	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1211 Southwest	LAS 10:26	SMF 12:10	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 188 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:11	SMF 13:55	11%	4%	0.7%	77%
WN 1701 Southwest	LAS 15:11	SMF 16:55	16%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 2430 Southwest	LAS 16:56	SMF 18:40	20%	8%	1.0%	no record
F9 2069 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 16:02	SMF 17:57	24%	10%	1.3%	79%
WN 3656 Southwest	LAS 18:16	SMF 20:00	24%	11%	3.5%	no record
WN 2232 Southwest	LAS 19:35	SMF 21:11	27%	11%	2.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON