Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2433 at 07:36 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 2433 LAS 07:36 → SNA 08:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2010 LAS 19:29 → SNA 20:38 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2433 Southwest	LAS 07:36	SNA 08:56	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 4078 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 08:45	SNA 10:02	11%	6%	0.7%	88%
WN 2435 Southwest	LAS 11:06	SNA 12:26	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 4179 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 18:01	SNA 19:15	22%	10%	3.2%	89%worse than usual
WN 4036 Southwest	LAS 13:56	SNA 15:16	23%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 3664 Southwest	LAS 16:20	SNA 17:32	27%	6%	1.0%	no record
WN 2010 Southwest	LAS 19:29	SNA 20:38	29%	8%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON