Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4693 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 4693 LAS 06:10 → STL 11:23 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2444 LAS 17:46 → STL 23:00 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4693 Southwest	LAS 06:10	STL 11:23	3%	1%	0.4%	no record
F9 3108 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 06:18	STL 11:41	10%	4%	0.9%	81%
WN 1181 Southwest	LAS 11:01	STL 16:15	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2012 Southwest	LAS 15:31	STL 20:45	22%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 2444 Southwest	LAS 17:46	STL 23:00	27%	9%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON