tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Tampa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2036 Southwest LAS 17:01 TPA 00:25 37% 10% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:53 → IAH 05:53UA 2009 1h 32m Houston IAH 07:25 → TPA 10:45UA 1353 6h 52m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:09 → IAD 07:39UA 284 1h 21m Dulles IAD 09:00 → TPA 11:32UA 683 8h 23m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:36 → MSP 14:42DL 2261 1h 23m Minneapolis MSP 16:05 → TPA 20:19DL 2385 7h 43m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → TPA 11:37DL 1587 8h 04m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 08m Denver DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010 6h 44m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:02 → LAX 07:12UA 2039 2h 21m Los Angeles LAX 09:33 → TPA 17:29UA 392 8h 27m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:59 → DTW 16:55DL 470 1h 35m Detroit DTW 18:30 → TPA 21:09DL 1355 8h 10m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → LAS 15:19 → SFO 17:11UA 2047 3h 48m San Francisco SFO 20:59 → TPA 05:03 +1UA 1702 10h 44m 97% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAS 18:20 → SFO 20:02UA 1603 57m San Francisco SFO 20:59 → TPA 05:03 +1UA 1702 7h 43m 66% 53%
AmericanDetails → LAS 13:13 → CLT 20:41AA 2470 58m Charlotte CLT 21:39 → TPA 23:33AA 1773 7h 20m 64% 43%
AmericanDetails → LAS 12:25 → DFW 17:20AA 1482 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:19 → TPA 21:57AA 2401 6h 32m 69% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON