tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1188 at 15:21, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1188 Southwest LAS 15:21 TUL 20:06 22% 7% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 09:20 → TUL 10:16DL 2754 7h 43m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 33m Denver DEN 10:05 → TUL 13:00UA 5315 · flown by SkyWest 5h 30m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:11 → ORD 05:44AA 3077 2h 42m Chicago ORD 08:26 → TUL 10:27AA 4155 · flown by Envoy 8h 16m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:15 → SLC 15:44DL 1659 1h 26m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → TUL 20:40DL 3825 · flown by SkyWest 5h 25m 92% 79%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 15:43 → TUL 16:44DL 2837 8h 44m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → LAS 16:25 → DEN 19:30UA 2108 1h 25m Denver DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest 5h 22m 89% 76%
UnitedDetails → LAS 09:37 → DEN 12:41UA 1315 59m Denver DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest 4h 52m 90% 76%
DeltaDetails → LAS 10:41 → ATL 17:45DL 777 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → TUL 22:18DL 2043 9h 37m 98% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323 55m Denver DEN 17:35 → TUL 20:25UA 1937 4h 49m 75% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON