Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 10–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 4098 LAX 20:23 → ABQ 23:31 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 2455 LAX 13:47 → ABQ 16:50 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4098 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 20:23	ABQ 23:31	10%	5%	0.5%	90%
OO 296 SkyWest	LAX 20:35	ABQ 23:40	10%	5%	0.5%	no record
OO 4897 SkyWest	LAX 09:04	ABQ 12:14	11%	5%	0.5%	no record
OO 130 SkyWest	LAX 08:52	ABQ 12:01	12%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 6515 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 20:08	ABQ 23:09	13%	5%	0.5%	81%
OO 4550 SkyWest	LAX 14:55	ABQ 18:03	14%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 2455 Southwest	LAX 13:47	ABQ 16:50	17%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON