Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Portland, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 11% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 43 Alaska	LAX 07:11	ANC 11:46	15%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792	2h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 14:18 → ANC 16:49DL 411	11h 34m	98%	83%
Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → PDX 09:21AS 668	1h 39m Portland	PDX 11:00 → ANC 13:46AS 775	7h 46m	97%	80%
United Details →	LAX 12:46 → DEN 16:16UA 360	2h 50m Denver	DEN 19:06 → ANC 22:50UA 280	11h 04m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377	10h 45m	93%	74%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → ANC 18:48DL 416	13h 48m	96%	73%
Alaska Details →	LAX 18:00 → HNL 20:53AS 809	2h 16m Honolulu	HNL 23:09 → ANC 07:16 +1AS 49	14h 16m	93%	73%
Alaska Details →	LAX 14:27 → PDX 16:47AS 1315	1h 11m Portland	PDX 17:58 → ANC 20:40AS 1455	7h 13m	90%	72%
United Details →	LAX 07:00 → ORD 13:14UA 1941	3h 05m Chicago	ORD 16:19 → ANC 19:53UA 461	13h 53m	97%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LAX 11:22 → PDX 13:43AS 1355	48m Portland	PDX 14:31 → ANC 17:35AS 1406	7h 13m	69%	57%
Delta Details →	LAX 17:45 → SEA 20:27DL 2640	53m Seattle	SEA 21:20 → ANC 23:58DL 936	7h 13m	71%	52%
Alaska Details →	LAX 08:19 → SEA 10:56AS 495	49m Seattle	SEA 11:45 → ANC 14:40AS 1333	7h 21m	11%	8%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON