Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 390 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 390 LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 753 LAX 09:45 → ATL 17:15 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 390 Delta Flight history →	LAX 06:00	ATL 13:35	11%	3%	0.5%	89%
DL 515 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:00	ATL 14:35	13%	3%	0.5%	84%
DL 783 Delta Flight history →	LAX 21:24	ATL 05:00	14%	4%	0.5%	82%
DL 899 Delta Flight history →	LAX 22:40	ATL 06:07	15%	3%	0.5%	79%
DL 327 Delta Flight history →	LAX 21:39	ATL 04:54	16%	4%	0.5%	72%
DL 782 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:05	ATL 15:41	17%	4%	0.5%	82%
DL 715 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:15	ATL 21:59	18%	8%	0.8%	82%
DL 579 Delta	LAX 00:15	ATL 07:28	19%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 395 Delta Flight history →	LAX 13:15	ATL 20:56	20%	6%	0.8%	80%
DL 528 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:00	ATL 18:37	21%	7%	1.3%	86%
DL 843 Delta	LAX 15:11	ATL 22:35	21%	7%	0.6%	no record
F9 4316 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 12:44	ATL 20:25	31%	13%	2.6%	67%
F9 3216 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 00:03	ATL 07:45	32%	7%	0.9%	65%
AA 753 American Flight history →	LAX 09:45	ATL 17:15	33%	10%	0.6%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 19:55 → LAS 21:04DL 2202	54m Las Vegas	LAS 21:58 → ATL 05:04 +1DL 417	6h 09m	76%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON