Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2458 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 2458 LAX 06:04 → AUS 11:04 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2460 LAX 14:52 → AUS 19:54 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2458 Southwest	LAX 06:04	AUS 11:04	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 946 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:35	AUS 12:38	11%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 1625 United	LAX 08:18	AUS 13:26	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 4945 SkyWest	LAX 18:34	AUS 23:44	16%	7%	0.8%	no record
UA 1496 United	LAX 10:48	AUS 15:50	18%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 4842 Southwest	LAX 09:22	AUS 14:29	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 622 Delta Flight history →	LAX 16:00	AUS 20:59	19%	6%	0.6%	78%
DL 986 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:00	AUS 16:07	20%	5%	0.6%	87%
OO 6243 SkyWest	LAX 09:35	AUS 14:50	20%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 2460 Southwest	LAX 14:52	AUS 19:54	31%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON