Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 13–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3773 LAX 11:44 → BOI 14:46 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 4148 LAX 19:59 → BOI 22:58 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3773 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 11:44	BOI 14:46	13%	6%	0.6%	89%
OO 3010 SkyWest	LAX 19:41	BOI 22:51	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 4148 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 19:59	BOI 22:58	14%	5%	0.6%	87%
AS 2201 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAX 19:45	BOI 22:45	18%	8%	0.0%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON